Tesla (TSLA) is about to launch Q3 2024 monetary outcomes on Wednesday, October 23, after the markets shut. As regular, a convention name and Q&A with Tesla’s administration are scheduled after the outcomes.
Right here, we’ll take a look at what the road and retail traders count on for the quarterly outcomes.
Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries
Elon Musk says that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics firm, however its automotive enterprise nonetheless drives its financials.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q3 2024 automobile manufacturing and deliveries:
| Manufacturing | Deliveries | Topic to working lease accounting | |
| Mannequin 3/Y | 443,668 | 439,975 | 3% |
| Different Fashions | 26,128 | 22,915 | 1% |
| Whole | 469,796 | 462,890 | 3% |
The deliveries have been roughly in keeping with Wall Road’s expectations.
Now that vitality storage is beginning to contribute to Tesla’s income extra meaningfully, the corporate has additionally began sharing deployment in its quarterly supply and manufacturing numbers.
Tesla confirmed that it deployed 6.9 GWh of vitality storage capability in Q3 2024.
Tesla Q3 2024 income
For income, analysts usually have a fairly good thought of what to anticipate, because of the supply numbers, and now the vitality storage deployment information.
Nevertheless, Tesla’s common worth per automobile is altering rather a lot today because of frequent worth cuts and reductions throughout many markets, which makes issues harder.
The Wall Road consensus for this quarter is $25.468 billion, and Estimize, the monetary estimate crowdsourcing web site, predicts a slighty greater income of $25.541 billion.
Listed below are the predictions for Tesla’s income over the previous two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Road consensus in grey, and precise outcomes are in inexperienced:
Final quarter, Tesla achieved a big $1 billion beat on income expectations.
Curiously, the expectations are actually roughly the identical income as Tesla achieved final quarter regardless of Tesla delivering nearly 20,000 extra automobiles.
The distinction makers are doubtless the truth that Tesla deployed about 3 GWh much less vitality storage, which contributed $3 billion to income final quarter and the regulatory credit score gross sales, that are laborious to foretell.
Tesla Q3 2024 earnings
Tesla all the time makes an attempt to be marginally worthwhile each quarter because it invests most of its cash into progress, and it has been profitable in doing so over the past three years.
Nevertheless, like revenues, it has been tougher to estimate earnings over the past yr with worth cuts and backed loans digging into Tesla’s industry-leading gross margins.
For Q3 2024, the Wall Road consensus is a achieve of $0.60 per share, which Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction.
Tesla had earnings of $0.66 per share throughout the identical interval final yr.
Listed below are the earnings per share over the past two years, the place Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Road consensus is in grey, and precise outcomes are in inexperienced:
Tesla has not often overwhelmed EPS estimates over the past yr, and the distinction maker is usually Tesla’s regulatory credit score gross sales.
Different expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst name
Past the monetary outcomes, Tesla all the time offers broader updates and solutions shareholder questions in its shareholder letter and convention name with administration following the discharge of the outcomes.
Tesla gathers questions from shareholders from the “Say Applied sciences” web site.
Listed below are the at the moment most upvoted questions, that are more likely to be answered by administration, and my feedback on them:
Is Tesla nonetheless on observe to ship the extra inexpensive mannequin subsequent yr, as talked about by Elon earlier, and the way does it align together with your AI and product roadmap?”
Musk’s basic reply to product questions on earnings calls is “this isn’t the place for product bulletins”, however the truth that the query additionally mentions Tesla’s AI shift may lead him to remark and make clear Tesla’s plans for automobiles with steering wheels.
When can we count on Tesla to provide us the ~$25K, non-robotaxi, common automotive mannequin?
As we have now beforehand reported, this automobile program was canceled by Musk earlier this yr and changed by new automobile packages primarily based on Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y that might be costlier than $25,000, however cheaper than the present ~$40,000 variations of those automobiles.
What’s Tesla doing to alleviate lengthy ready instances on service facilities ?
Extra of a consumer-related query, however not a nasty one. Tesla is certainly having points with unacceptable wait instances at service facilities in some areas. It has been a recurring downside for Tesla, however it grew to become a much bigger downside with the layoffs earlier this yr.
If Musk offers once more his reply of “the very best service isn’t any service”, persons are going to start out taking it with a unique that means.
What’s the plan for 2025?
That is actually the fourth most upvoted query.
When will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all the Tesla Automobiles?
And that is the fifth most upvoted one.
Tesla then takes questions from Wall Road analysts, who I hope might be questioning Musk’s all-in wager on self-driving and why Tesla can’t share any information about its FSD program to show the progress it’s claiming to be attaining, however I gained’t maintain my breath.
The main target will doubtless be on gross margins and the way a lot they’re affected by the backed rates of interest and reductions.
Additionally, as the percentages of Trump profitable the elections are rising, I count on some will take a look at the potential influence of his insurance policies on Tesla’s very profitable enterprise of promoting regulatory credit.
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